By Mehmet Zorluoglu
Opinions Contributor
The first two states to vote in the presidential primary process are Iowa and New Hampshire. Iowa is caucusing today, and pundits expect for both the Democratic and Republican races to pick up, with candidates desperate to increase their chances in the early states.
Keeping in mind that the debate this past Thursday was the final debate before these first two crucial states vote, I will grade each candidate’s performance based on how much they have or have not improved their chances of winning those states.
Let me preface my ratings by saying that I thought Rand Paul and Jeb Bush “won” this debate, but my ratings might not reflect their proficient performance. This is because I think it is too late for some of these candidates in the first two states, and my criteria for grading is how much of a boost this debate may have given each candidate in New Hampshire and Iowa.
Ted Cruz: C+/B-
Cruz was attacked all night long, whether it was from challenging questions posed by the moderators, or from an array of attacks from his fellow candidates. He seemed to be out of his element throughout the debate. He even complained about it at one point to the moderators, blaming the method of their questioning for the continued attacks. Following up his complaint, he said, “Well, no, no. A debate actually is a policy issue, but I will say this. Gosh, if you guys ask one more mean question I may have to leave the stage.”
Perhaps in his mind Cruz thought that this would have been a blatant jab at Trump’s absence from the debate while at the same time underscoring how mistreated he felt, but it was largely ineffective at doing both.
It may well have been a part of Trump’s strategy to decide to leave the debate stage to the other candidates and have them battle it out, assuming that Cruz – who seems like Trump’s most imminent threat polling in Iowa – would be scolded by the other presidential hopefuls. Ultimately, it still seems to be a choice between Trump or Cruz for Iowans, with both dominating the polls in the past several weeks. It seems too close to call; both have close to a 50 percent chance of winning.
Noteworthy Moment: “Now, secondly, let me say I’m a maniac and everyone on this stage is stupid, fat, and ugly. And Ben, you’re a terrible surgeon. Now that we’ve gotten the Donald Trump portion out of the way, let’s move on with the debate.”
Marco Rubio: B-
Rubio had a solid night. Although this is said after almost every debate, Rubio has not had one debate where he stood out to the point where I would say he has broken out. This will not help his chances in the first two states, as there is very little time to make up the ground he needs to to make a push to win either state. However, he did not hurt his chances. With Trump absent, he was one of the two candidates to receive the most speaking time, and he is very adept at delivering his message with a purpose.
Bush and Rubio got into a bit of a skirmish over immigration reform, each questioning the other’s consistency and current position on the issue. Each held their own, with Paul getting the best of the net exchange, citing specific evidence of Cruz’s inconsistencies.
Rubio still has a shot at second place in New Hampshire, and, with Iowa being arguably one of the most unpredictable states, particularly for the Republicans, he may just have a small chance of squeaking a second place result there as well. He is in a good position as the leading establishment candidate.
Noteworthy Moment: “This is the lie that Ted’s campaign is built on, and Rand touched upon it – that he’s the most conservative guy, and everyone else is a – you know, everyone else is a RINO (Republican in name only). The truth is, Ted, throughout this campaign, you’ve been willing to say or do anything in order to get votes. Ted, you worked for George W. Bush’s campaign.”
Ben Carson: C-
Carson’s campaign is crumbling as it has been for weeks now. He was once challenging Trump, even pulling ahead of him at times, but that time has clearly passed. He has fell to single digits in national polls, and things do not seem to be headed in the right direction. Best case scenario is that the campaign has stalled and is unable to gain any more support. In this debate, as is his usual demeanor, he was soft spoken and laid back in his approach. He had a few confusing, seemingly indecipherable moments, most notably when he said, “. . . because Putin is a one- horse country: oil and energy.”
I do not give Carson much of a chance of shocking everyone and performing exceptionally well in either of the first two states. He may very well drop out right after Iowa.
Noteworthy moment: “Putin is a one-horse country: oil and energy.”
Jeb Bush: B-
Bush had a really good debate performance overall, and my rating would have been higher had it not been for his struggles in the polls. He still holds a decent amount of support in New Hampshire, so it is not inconceivable for him to see an uptick in his support there. Many pundits said that perhaps it was the absence of Trump that allowed Bush to portray his full capabilities, as Trump had seemingly neutralized Bush in the past with an array of insults and attacks.
Bush went after Rubio on his immigration record, and I can’t say that it was a mistake. He held his own in the exchange, and things could slowly be heading in the right direction for him. However, it is a deep hole that he sees himself in, and it will be a huge effort to bring himself back up into a formidable position for the nomination.
Noteworthy moment: “And he led the charge to finally fix this immigration problem that has existed now for, as Marco says, for 30 years. And then he cut and run because it wasn’t popular amongst conservatives, I guess.”
Chris Christie: C
Christie was not terrible, but I thought his performance fell a little short of his potential. He did not directly answer many of the questions that he was asked, instead evading them and talking about something else. It is not that this is an unusual tactic for Christie, but this time around it seemed to be less effective and for that reason I thought he was one of the losers of the debate. Bush, Rubio, Paul, and even Cruz all did at least a little bit better in explaining their positions and commanding the stage.
Noteworthy moment: “If I’m elected, she will not get within 10 miles of the White House. The days of the Clintons in public housing are over.”
John Kasich: C
Kasich seems a viable candidate, but it seems he just chose the wrong year to run. There currently seems to be no room in the party for a moderate like Kasich, as Trump and Cruz have been number one and two respectively for a while now. It also looks like the success of these two have pushed many of the other candidates even further right than usual, but Kasich, has been very consistent and for that reason will find it very difficult to move up the ranks.
He is still hoping for a good result in the more moderate New Hampshire, but even there Trump is dominating the polls, with a handful of candidates all within a few points of each other after Trump. If Kasich manages to get second place there, he may continue on, but, at least thus far, it really looks like the moderates of the party are going to struggle to garner more support. A few days after the debate, the New York Times editorial board endorsed Kasich as the most viable Republican candidate. However, this likely won’t help him much as many conservatives view the New York Times being at odds with the conservative movement.
Noteworthy moment: “You know, Chris, here’s what happened with Medicaid in my state. We took the growth of Medicaid from over 10 percent in my second budget to 2.5 percent, without cutting off one person or cutting one benefit, because we, we innovated the government. And now, mom and dad can stay in their own home, rather than being forced into a nursing home. And then we decided we could bring $14 billion of our money – I mean, Washington doesn’t have any money. It was our money, and we brought them back to tend to the mentally ill. Because I don’t think they ought to live in prison or live under a bridge; to treat the drug-addicted so they’re not in an in-and-out-of-the-door policy out of the prisons; and to help the working poor so they don’t live in emergency rooms.”
Rand Paul: C+
As I stated earlier, I thought Paul was one of the biggest winners of this debate. He got his points across coherently and effectively, and he even went after the records of Cruz and Rubio a bunch of times, enjoying moderate success in doing so. Paul seems to offer the younger Republican voters an alternative to many of the other candidates, as he identifies closer to Libertarianism than anything else. This means he is more socially liberal than many of the Republican candidates which usually bodes well with younger voters. I think this debate performance could see Paul remind some people of what made his father Ron such an interesting candidate. He was always considered one of the most honest politicians, and this could see Paul bumped up a couple percentage points in a few states. However, his father ran for president three times and was never elected, so perhaps he does not want to follow in his footsteps completely.
Noteworthy moment: “But it’s a falseness, and that’s an authenticity problem – that everybody he knows is not as perfect as him because we’re all for amnesty. I was for legalization. I think, frankly, if you have border security, you can have legalization. So was Ted, but now he says it wasn’t so. That’s not true.”