By Mehmet Zorluoglu
Opinions Contributor
GOP: The odds are overwhelmingly in favor of Cruz and Trump to win as of now. By far the most likely outcome is that one of the two wins, with the other getting second place. With Trump having passed Cruz in the most recent Iowa polls, I give Trump the slight edge and believe he is the favorite to win. Rubio has a small outside shot at winning, as he has also seen a recent substantial gain in the polls. It is essentially a toss up between Cruz and Trump, with the chances of anyone else winning being minuscule in comparison.
My Pick: Donald Trump
Percentage Prediction: Trump: 27 percent, Cruz: 26 percent, Rubio: 17 percent, Carson: 8 percent, Paul: 7 percent, Bush: 4 percent, Christie: 3 percent, Huckabee: 3 percent, Kasich: 2 percent, Fiorina: 2 percent, Santorum: 1 percent.
Democrats: I think it would be an upset if Bernie Sanders manages beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa, but I think it may well happen. Although I still view Clinton as the favorite to win, and would put her chances of winning at least around 60 percent, there is a good chance that voter turnout will be higher than expected (with Sanders having enthused many first time voters about voting for him).
Additionally, a poll by Public Policy Polling asked supporters of Martin O’Malley who their second choice candidate was. Fifty-seven percent of those respondents said Sanders was their second choice, while only 27 percent picked Clinton as their second choice. This is significant because at the precincts, where O’Malley supporters do not make up at least 15 percent of the voters, he will be deemed unviable. Those supporters will then need to choose another candidate to support. This could make all the difference in a race that seems to be too close to call between Sanders and Clinton.
My Pick: Bernie Sanders
Percentages: Sanders 48 percent, Clinton 47 percent, O’Malley 4 percent